51福利社

By analysing British Election Study (Wave 6) post-election data based on online interviews with up to 30,000 respondents, Co-Director Professor Ed Fieldhouse from 51福利社 says perceptions of Labour’s economic competence and Miliband’s leadership were more of a problem to Labour than whether or not their position was too far to the Left.

Few could have anticipated the surge in support for Jeremy Corbyn, who after getting on to the Labour leadership ballot by the skin of his teeth has become remarkably popular among his party's grassroots. Most Labour supporters have something to say on the Corbyn phenomenon, and opinions range from doom-laden scenarios to a welcome break from the New Labour past. Former PM Tony Blair, unsurprisingly, speaks for the former.

One of the bitterest arguments between the two Labour sides has been over how the nation sees the party in terms of its place in the left-right spectrum. Fellow leadership contender Liz Kendall echoes Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson by arguing that Labour’s election loss could be explained by its leftward drift under Ed Miliband. But Corbyn and his supporters say the nation turned away from Labour for precisely the opposite reason: it was too obsessed with the political centre ground.

Context matters
“What history suggests is context matters: it was OK to be radical when the electorate demanded it in 1945, but in 1997, when Labour’s traditional working class vote had declined and the electorate had grown accustomed to low personal tax rates and interest rates, occupying the centre was the dominant and winning strategy. But what is important is not whether Labour is slightly more to the left of centre, but how this compares with to where voters’ preferences lie, and whether rival parties take a more or less centrist position.”

And from 1997 to 2014?
“The BES is unique in that it can show detailed trends in public attitudes over long periods of time.  And it confirms, as Blair suggests, that today, Labour is now slightly further away from the centre ground with a mean perceived position when he was first elected PM in 1997.”

But what about distribution of voters’ preferences?
“Our data shows that while Labour might be seen as a little off the centre ground, they are not regarded as far to the left as the Conservatives are to the right. Over 20% of voters regard the Tories on the extreme right hand end of our scale. A fair number of 16% put Labour on the extreme left, but a significant minority see them as right of centre.”

What about Labour’s own supporters?
“What we see is that Labour is actually a tiny bit to the right of its own supporters which is the natural place to be for a party on the left that wishes to attract new support. This again compares favourably with the Conservatives, who are regarded, on average, as slightly to the right of their own supporters, and even to the right of UKIP supporters. Indeed only BNP supporters see themselves as more right-wing than the Conservatives. Labour is also to the right of some of its’ competitors in the shape of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens.

”The position in relation to the Lib Dems is interesting with the election of Tim Farron, who will undoubtedly shift the  centre of gravity of the Lib Dems to the left and appeal to the many voters lost to Labour in 2015. For Labour to hold on to these new supporters, a shift to the left could be risky. But, since the average position of SNP voters is roughly the same distance to the left of Labour as the Lib Dems are to the  right, the dangers of a rightward shift are just as real.”

How important is ‘Left and Right’ anyway?
“Elections are not just about left and right: our analysis of which party voters are closest to shows that only 12% placed themselves closer to Labour than to any other party. We show that whether Labour turns to the left or whether it takes up Blair’s advice, the impact on its support is minimal either way. Looking at people who would be predicted to vote Labour simply on the basis of left-right proximity at different left-right positions, the share changes from 16.5% at point 2 on our left right scale – very left -, to 18.0% at point 3 and 18.6% at point 4 (just left of centre)..

“Ultimately Labour’s fortunes are unlikely to rest on whether Labour choose a leader to the right or to left, but rather on choosing a leader who can perform the seemingly impossible task of simultaneously restoring the party’s  economic credibility and at the same time appealing to its traditional supporters. What Labour needs is to avoid the ‘left-wing’ label but not necessarily the policies. This requires a leader with popular appeal and a program of progressive polices which can unify opposition to the Conservative government.”

Notes for editors

Graphs and figures are available

Full blog, which is available at   is available on request

For media enquires contact:
Mike Addelman
Communications and Marketing Manager
British Election Study
University of 51福利社
0161 306 6901
07717 881567
Visit www.britishelectionstudy.com
Follow us on Twitter @BESResearch